SCMS RESOURCE CENTER:
IN THE SPOTLIGHT

Access  Forecasting and Supply Planning Tech Brief

• Forecasting ARV Demand 2008-2010 and Improving paediatric and second line ARV options.Access Document
• Demand Forecast for Antiretroviral Drugs in Low and Middle-Income countries, 2007-2008.
  Access Document
• Guide for Quantifying ARV Drugs from the collective experience of DELIVER logistics advisors.   
  Access Document
• The Contraceptive Forecasting Handbook for Family Planning and HIV/AIDS Prevention Programs.   Access Document

To meet the need for scale-up of HIV/AIDS programs, countries must improve their forecasting so that those responsible for the procurement and supply of needed commodities can make the necessary arrangements to ensure that patients and programs receive a continuous supply of essential medicines and health products.

Effective forecasting and supply planning are characterized by:

• 24-month forecasts to ensure product availability
• 12-month supply plans to determine the optimal procurement and delivery schedule
• Quarterly review and revision of forecasts and plans
• Sharing of quantifications with other stakeholders
• Use of consumption data, and where consumption data are not available use of a morbidity approach, with appropriate allowance for program scale-up

Until 2009, 15 PEPFAR implementing partners (IPs) in Nigeria developed individual drug quantifications for their HIV/AIDS treatment programs using various methods with differing assumptions and data. This fragmented approach obscured the overall picture of the PEPFAR Nigeria antiretroviral treatment (ART) program, impeded coordinated product selection, hampered PEPFAR-wide budget planning and prevented economies of scale in procurement. In April 2008, SCMS worked with IPs to develop individual quantifications and to compile the first PEPFARwide, five-year aggregated quantification for ARVs in Nigeria.

The quantification exercise provided IPs the first aggregate figure, $105 million, for total ARV needs for the coming budget year. It also revealed how quickly that ART programs were planning to switch patients from Stavudine-based treat­ment regimens to more costly Truvada, causing potential shortfalls in funding. As a result, programs were advised to transition to Truvada only those patients needing the switch for medical reasons. The resulting data were also used to identify two high-value, high-volume ARV drug combinations for pooled procurement by SCMS.

Please share these resoures related to successes and challenges in forecasting and demand planning of HIV/AIDS commodities.